Two Years In, The 2024 QB Class Reshuffles Itself: What The Film Really Says About Who Won The Lottery
The question that consumed the NFL offseason in April 2024 has taken on new meaning with two seasons of professional film in the books. If the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, and Arizona Cardinals could rewind to the 2024 NFL Draft and make their quarterback selections again, would the order remain the same? The honest answer, according to multiple scouts, coaches, and front office executives with direct knowledge of how the league evaluates these three generational talents, is a resounding no.
Caleb Williams commanded the first overall pick with the kind of certainty that only surrounds transcendent college quarterbacks. The Chicago Bears executed the trade to acquire that selection on draft night with conviction. Yet the reshuffling that has occurred across the 2024 and 2025 seasons reveals a far more nuanced hierarchy than the pre-draft consensus suggested. This is not merely about wins and losses, though those matter. This is about what the film reveals when coaches study it in the darkest hours of their offseason evaluations.
Per sources involved in multiple team evaluations, the conversation around Jayden Daniels has shifted dramatically since the Commanders took him second overall. One veteran front office executive with direct knowledge of quarterback assessment tells me that Daniels' processing speed and comfort in the pocket have exceeded expectations that were already substantial coming into the league. The Washington organization entered the 2024 season uncertain whether they had the foundational piece of a franchise. Two years into his professional career, that uncertainty has largely evaporated among the scouts and coaches who consume Commanders film on a weekly basis.
The baseline expectation for any top-three quarterback in the modern NFL centers on trajectory. Does he improve? Does he make the throws that were theoretical in college but need to be automatic in the league? Does he elevate the players around him, or does he remain dependent on elite talent to function? Multiple sources confirm that Daniels has demonstrated improvement in each of these areas that exceeds the typical developmental timeline for quarterback prospects, even generational ones.
Sources close to the Commanders' coaching staff indicate that the organization has begun to view Daniels' skill set differently than they did during his rookie season. The arm talent that was always elite has been paired with an increasingly sophisticated understanding of coverage structures and defensive tendencies. One offensive coordinator with extensive exposure to Commanders game film tells me that Daniels is now seeing plays develop faster and processing information with the kind of automaticity that typically takes four or five years for college quarterbacks to develop.
Caleb Williams, conversely, has encountered a different set of professional realities. The Bears' offensive environment has proven less than ideal for the development of any quarterback, let alone one making the transition from college to the league. Per sources with direct knowledge of the Chicago organization's internal evaluations, the coaching staff has grappled with how much of Williams' inconsistency stems from his own development and how much flows from the roster construction around him. This distinction matters immensely when front office executives evaluate whether their draft capital was spent wisely.
Multiple sources confirm that film study of Williams shows a quarterback who possesses every physical tool necessary to be a long-term franchise solution. His arm talent is otherworldly. His ability to create outside of structure is elite. Yet the professional game has demanded something different from Williams than what made him unstoppable in college. The speed of the NFL game, the sophistication of defenses, and the inability to simply outrun problems have collectively presented a steeper learning curve than many evaluators anticipated.
One source close to the Bears' quarterback development process tells me that the organization remains committed to Williams long-term, but that commitment is rooted in belief rather than certainty. The distinction is crucial. A quarterback selected first overall should inspire certainty within his organization by year two. The fact that Williams is still in the belief phase, while Daniels has moved into the certainty phase, represents a significant reordering of the quarterback hierarchy.
Jaylen Daniels is not the story here, though he competes for consideration in this conversation. The Arizona Cardinals selected Marvin Harrison Jr. instead of a quarterback at fourth overall in 2024, which has become increasingly viewed as the correct decision in hindsight. However, the quarterback class beyond the top three reveals how fortuitous the Commanders were to have the second overall pick.
Drake Maye entered the 2024 NFL Draft as a prospect with significant developmental uncertainty. The New England Patriots selected him third overall knowing full well that he would require time, patience, and a substantial investment in coaching. Per sources with direct knowledge of the Patriots' organizational thinking, the decision to draft Maye was rooted in ceiling, not floor. The organization believed that with proper development, Maye could become a top-five quarterback in the league. Two years into his professional career, that belief has been tested.
Sources close to the Patriots' coaching staff indicate that Maye has shown flashes of the elite talent that justified his draft selection. His arm strength continues to improve. His understanding of football at the professional level has grown substantially. Yet the gap between his current performance and his theoretical ceiling remains larger than what has been observed with Daniels. Multiple scouts with direct knowledge of Patriots film tell me that Maye is on a developmental trajectory that suggests he could reach his ceiling, but that timeline extends beyond the typical four to five year window that evaluators use to assess whether a quarterback pick was successful.
The reshuffling of this quarterback class becomes clearer when scouts are asked a simple question: if you could have any of these three quarterbacks starting for your team next season, who would you choose? Per sources involved in multiple team evaluations, the answer is no longer uniform. The majority perspective leans toward Daniels, with Williams as a close second and Maye as a respected prospect still climbing his development curve.
This reordering carries significant implications for how teams will evaluate quarterback prospects in future drafts. The 2024 class arrived with the kind of hype that suggested multiple generational talents were entering the league simultaneously. The reality has proven more complicated. Daniels appears to be developing in the manner that a generational talent should develop. Williams possesses the tools but has struggled with the transition in ways that have surprised some evaluators. Maye remains a work in progress with significant upside but an uncertain timeline for realizing that upside.
One veteran scout with twenty-three years of NFL evaluation experience tells me that the 2024 quarterback class has taught a valuable lesson about the limitations of college film study. Every quarterback looks flawless when surrounded by elite talent. The true measure of a quarterback emerges when he is thrust into an environment that does not maximize his strengths and instead forces him to develop new ones. Jayden Daniels has adapted to his environment more successfully than Caleb Williams has adapted to his. That adaptation gap explains much of the reordering that has occurred.
Sources involved in the Washington Commanders' organization express quiet confidence about the quarterback position that was absent during the organization's earlier years. Per multiple sources with direct knowledge of Commanders planning, the team is beginning to construct the roster around Daniels with the assumption that he will be the franchise's quarterback for the next decade. That level of organizational conviction typically arrives after two to three years of consistent proof, not eighteen months. The speed at which Daniels has inspired that conviction speaks to his actual performance trajectory.
The Chicago Bears, by comparison, remain in the evaluation phase with Williams. The organization has not made the organizational leap to assume that Williams will be their long-term solution. This is not to say that the Bears have abandoned Williams. Rather, it suggests that the Bears are approaching his development with the caution that typically accompanies quarterbacks who required significant investment to acquire but who have not yet consistently demonstrated that the investment will pay dividends.
Moving forward, the conversation around this quarterback class will continue to evolve. The 2025 NFL season will provide another layer of data that could further reshape how these three quarterbacks are evaluated relative to one another. However, the reordering that has already occurred is based on film evidence, coaching evaluations, and organizational confidence metrics that suggest the early draft consensus has not held.
What happens next depends entirely on whether these three quarterbacks can sustain their current trajectories. Daniels must prove that his year-two performance was not an anomaly. Williams must demonstrate that he can consistently execute at the level that his talent suggests. Maye must continue climbing his development curve and prove that the timeline for reaching his ceiling is shorter than current projections suggest. The lottery result will ultimately be determined not by what the draft order was in 2024, but by what the film reveals over the next five to seven years of professional football.