The Rested Buccaneers and the Steelers' Trap Game: Why Mike Tomlin's Team Should Fear Tampa Bay's Week 6 Resurgence

There is a particular vulnerability that exists in professional football when a team has enjoyed an extended break from competition, a vulnerability that savvy coaches have exploited for decades. The narrative around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into Week 6 is one of a team needing rest, needing to recalibrate, needing to find answers after what has been a turbulent start to their season. But what I have learned over the years of studying this game, what Rich Eisen taught me when I was coming up in this business, is that narrative and reality often run on different tracks. The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored this week, and rightfully so given their identity and what they have been able to accomplish through the early part of this season. But the Steelers are walking directly into what I believe is one of the more dangerous situations a favored team can face: playing against an opponent that has had time to think, time to scheme, time to remember who they are.

Let me establish something upfront. The Steelers have built their reputation this season on a foundation of physical football, on a defense that has shown the ability to impose its will on opponents, on a commitment to the run game that hearkens back to Mike Tomlin's philosophy of establishing dominance at the line of scrimmage. This is a formula that has worked in the NFL for generations, and it has worked for Pittsburgh in 2024. When you can line up and tell your opponent what you are going to do, and then actually do it, that is power. That is control. But there is something about a bye week that provides an opportunity for a team like Tampa Bay to completely reset its approach, to study what has been working against them defensively, to find vulnerabilities in a Steelers team that has been operating on a specific wavelength.

The Buccaneers have Baker Mayfield under center, and despite whatever narrative exists about the ups and downs of his early season, the man has shown he can function within the context of a Todd Monken offense. Mayfield is not going to be mistaken for Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, but he is a capable quarterback who understands spacing, who understands how to get the ball to playmakers in rhythm. Mike Evans is still Mike Evans, a receiver who at this stage of his career might not be beating cornerbacks deep with the frequency he once did, but a receiver who understands how to position himself, how to win at the catch point. Chris Godwin has shown flashes of returning to form. The running back situation might not be what it once was, but there is enough there to establish some semblance of balance in the offense.

Here is where my concern for Pittsburgh becomes more acute. The Steelers defense, for all its accomplishments thus far, has shown tendencies. T.J. Watt is a phenomenal edge rusher, perhaps the best in football, but he can be accounted for with proper pass protection schemes. The secondary, while solid, has not shown the elite coverage ability that would suggest they can simply lock down one side of the field and force Mayfield to beat them with his arm. Pittsburgh's strategy has been to generate pressure up front, to make opposing offenses uncomfortable, to force negative plays. But the Buccaneers, with two weeks to prepare, will have extensive tape on how to identify pressures, how to slide protection to key pass rushers, how to get the ball out quickly enough to avoid the worst outcomes.

What truly concerns me is the philosophical matchup here. The Steelers want to impose their will. The Buccaneers, given time to prepare, will want to dictate terms. If Tampa Bay can establish the run game early, if they can force Pittsburgh to defend in space rather than in their comfort zone of generating interior pressure, this game becomes far more competitive than the point spread suggests. The Buccaneers are not going to win this game with power football. They are going to win it with patience, with precision, with the kind of surgical approach that a bye week allows you to construct.

Let me reference something that has stuck with me over the years of covering this league. When the New England Patriots had that bye week in 2014, heading into a matchup with Miami, many people believed the Patriots were vulnerable. The Dolphins were flying around, making plays, creating chaos. But New England came out of that bye week with a completely retooled game plan that took advantage of some fundamental adjustments they had made on film. That is not to say the Buccaneers are the Patriots of that era, because they certainly are not. But the principle holds true. Rest combined with preparation is a powerful cocktail in professional football.

The other element that cannot be ignored is the emotional component of this matchup. The Steelers are coming in as favorites, as a team that has established itself as a legitimate contender in the AFC North. There is confidence there, and confidence can tip into complacency. The Buccaneers are coming in needing to prove something to themselves and to the football world. They have had two weeks to stew on their performance, to identify what went wrong, to construct a blueprint for what goes right. That is motivation that point spreads do not always capture adequately.

Now, let me be clear about what I am not saying. I am not suggesting that the Buccaneers are a superior football team to the Steelers at this moment. The Steelers have been more consistent, more cohesive, more dominant in their wins. What I am suggesting is that there is a particular type of vulnerability that exists when a favored team walks into a game against an opponent that has had an extended break to prepare, especially when the favored team has been operating on a specific wavelength that is now well understood on tape. The Steelers have shown tendencies. Two weeks is enough time to devise counters to those tendencies.

The most dangerous favorite in football is one that assumes victory before kickoff, one that believes the film from weeks past will simply repeat itself when kickoff arrives. The Steelers are professionals, and Mike Tomlin is one of the better coaches in this business. He will prepare his team adequately. But preparation and execution are not always aligned, particularly when the opponent across the line from you has had time to think, to scheme, to remember who they are.

This is not a lock for the Buccaneers. This is not me suggesting that you should go put down significant money against Pittsburgh. What this is, is a warning to those who believe that favorites always cover, that the superior team always prevails, that narrative is irrelevant. The Steelers should win this game. But the manner in which the Buccaneers can win it, the paths that have been constructed for them by the bye week and by Pittsburgh's predictable tendencies, makes this far less of a certainty than the point spread would indicate. That is why Week 6 contains what might be the single biggest trap game on the slate.