The Week 7 Betting Market Is Massively Underestimating How Bad the Bears Really Are

Let me be crystal clear about something. The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have been wrong about the Chicago Bears all season, and Week 7 is going to expose that in the most painful way possible for anyone foolish enough to back them against the Patriots. This is not a close call. This is not a situation where you can make a reasonable argument for Chicago. The Bears are frauds, the betting lines reflect a team that is somehow still respected in Vegas, and that respect is completely undeserved.

The numbers tell you everything you need to know. Chicago is getting points at home against a Patriots team that everyone loves to hate because of the Bill Belichick coaching carousel and Mac Jones throwing interceptions in his sleep. Yet here we are in Week 7, and the Bears are still favored. This tells me the betting market has not fully processed just how dysfunctional the Bears organization actually is. They have an MVP-caliber quarterback in Justin Fields who is being asked to perform miracles behind a line that gets destroyed every Sunday. They have a defense that was supposed to be elite after spending draft capital and free agency money. Nothing is working. Nothing.

Chicago's offensive line is a disaster of epic proportions. You cannot win football games in 2024 when your quarterback is taking seven-step drops and getting destroyed three seconds into the play. The Patriots actually have a competent defensive scheme under Mike Vrabel's influence and whoever is calling plays for New England. They are going to feast on the gaps in Chicago's protection. They are going to get immediate pressure. They are going to make Fields uncomfortable, and when Fields is uncomfortable, the Bears offense looks like a college team trying to beat a high school team. It does not work. The betting public thinks the Bears are still a decent team because they have not fully abandoned them yet, but smart money is starting to see what I have been saying all along. This team is not competing.

Let me address the elephant in the room. Matt Eberflus is not the problem and he is also not the solution. He is the symptom of a deeper organizational sickness. The Bears do not know what they want to be offensively. Do they want to run the ball? Do they want Fields to improvise? Do they want to play conservative? They are trying to do everything and succeeding at nothing. This is what happens when you have front office people making football decisions without a coherent vision. The Patriots, meanwhile, have clarity. They know they are going to pressure you, make you uncomfortable, and force you into mistakes. That is their entire defensive strategy, and it is going to work beautifully against a Bears team that cannot block anybody.

The totals for this game are also completely off. Everyone thinks this is going to be a low-scoring affair because both teams are defensive minded. That is only partially true. Yes, the Patriots play defense first. But the Bears offense is so dysfunctional that they are going to have multiple three-and-outs, multiple stalled drives, and multiple situations where they are forced to punt from their own 35-yard line. The Patriots are not going to light up the scoreboard, but they are going to get enough field position to score twice, maybe three times if they are fortunate. Chicago will get a field goal, maybe a touchdown if they get lucky late. The under is the play here, but not because of defensive brilliance. The under is the play because Chicago cannot execute.

Now let's talk about the Chiefs and Seahawks, because this line is swimming in public money and that is usually a sign that smart money sees something different. Kansas City is favored, as they should be, but the spread is telling you that everyone thinks this is going to be relatively competitive. Here is the truth about this game. The Seahawks have a decent team. Geno Smith is playing good football. Their defense is getting better. But Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level, and the Kansas City offensive line is one of the better units in football this year. The Seahawks are going to have trouble generating consistent pressure. When Mahomes has time, he is basically unguardable. He will create off-platform throws that look impossible. He will scramble and find receivers down the field. The Chiefs are going to win this game comfortably. The public is backing Kansas City because they respect Mahomes and Andy Reid, and in this case, the public is actually right. But the line does not reflect how good the Chiefs have become. This is a team that is not winning MVP awards by accident.

The injury situation in Seattle is also being undervalued by the betting market. Missing key defensive contributors changes how you can scheme and how you can bring pressure from different angles. The Seahawks are going to have to be creative, but creative only works when you have the personnel to execute it. When you are down bodies, you have to go with what works. What works for Seattle is making the Seahawks defense harder to score on. They cannot do that against Mahomes and Reid. The Chiefs are going to score on at least half of their possessions. That is not hyperbole. That is what elite quarterback and elite offensive coordinator do against average-to-good defenses.

The problem with the betting market this week is that it is still operating under the assumption that competence is spread evenly across the NFL. It is not. There are elite teams. There are bad teams. There are teams that look competent but are not actually well coached. Chicago is in that last category. New England is better than Chicago, period. Kansas City is elite. Seattle is good but not elite. These differences matter. They matter in the spread. They matter in the total. They matter in the four quarters of football that are about to be played.

I am going to give you my verdicts on these two games, and I want you to listen carefully. The Bears are not going to cover at home against the Patriots. The public is backing Chicago because they are the home team and they have an excellent quarterback. Those reasons are insufficient. The Patriots are going to win this game 16-10 because the Bears will score one field goal and one touchdown in garbage time. The betting market thinks Chicago is a team on the rise. They are wrong. Chicago is a team in decline. Their window is closing because the organization cannot get out of its own way.

For the Chiefs and Seahawks, Kansas City is going to cover whatever the spread is. This is not close. The Seahawks are going to get one or two scores and call it a day. The Chiefs are going to methodically march down the field, score touchdowns, and take what they want. This is what happens when elite teams play good teams. The margin of difference is bigger than the betting line suggests. The public is respecting Kansas City, but not enough. Never doubt Mahomes when he has this much time to throw.

Here is the bottom line about Week 7. The betting market is overvaluing average teams and undervaluing great ones. Chicago is average at best. New England is solid. Kansas City is great. Seattle is good. Make your decisions accordingly. Do not get swept up in narratives about rebuilds or comebacks or defensive dominance. Football is simple. Better teams beat worse teams. Better coaches beat worse coaches. Execute better than your opponent, and you win. That is what you are going to see this week.