The Colts Just Made the Same Mistake Everybody Else Is Making With Running Backs, and It's Going to Cost Them

The Indianapolis Colts have officially lost their minds. They just handed Jonathan Taylor a two-year extension worth $44 million, and in doing so, they have joined the growing list of NFL franchises that fundamentally misunderstand how to allocate resources in 2024 and beyond. This is not a deal that wins football games. This is a deal that loses them. Let me explain exactly why, because this matters for every team watching what the Colts just did.

First, let's establish what we are really talking about here. Jonathan Taylor is a good running back. I will not call him great anymore because his production has not been great lately. He has been fine. He has been solid. He has been a guy who gets touches and moves the chain on occasion. But fine and solid do not warrant $44 million over two years in an era where quarterback salary cap hits are consuming 20 percent of a team's cap space. The Colts are now paying Jonathan Taylor like he is a franchise cornerstone. He is not. He never was. The sooner they realize this, the sooner they can actually fix what is wrong with their team.

Let's talk about what the NFL has learned, or rather what it should have learned by now. The position of running back has fundamentally changed in terms of value. The wear and tear on elite running backs is immense. The injury risk is constant. The production window is shorter than almost any other offensive skill position. Yet teams keep throwing massive amounts of money at this position like it is 1995 and we are still building offenses exclusively through the ground game. We are not. Modern football is won through the air. It is won through quarterback play. It is won through pass rush. Running backs are important, but they are not important in the way the Colts are now compensating Taylor.

The Colts had an easy decision to make here. They could have let Jonathan Taylor test the market. They could have franchised him. They could have drafted a replacement and let him prove he cannot be replaced. Instead, they locked in a guy who has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over the last two seasons. That is not elite production. That is not even above average in the modern NFL. Antonio Gibson, who the Colts could have signed for a fraction of the cost, averages 4.2 yards per carry over the same span. This is not complicated. The Colts overpaid for a below-average production level at a position that does not require premium investment.

Here is what really grinds my gears about this move. The Colts are in absolute cap hell coming into next season. They have massive decisions to make. They have holes at receiver. They have questions about their defensive line. They have uncertainty at linebacker. And what did they decide to do? They allocated $22 million a year to a running back. This is backward thinking. This is the kind of decision that keeps a franchise stuck in mediocrity for another five years. The Colts will wake up in 2027 wondering how they got stuck with dead cap space and a running back they cannot afford to cut. That is the Colts way now. That is their organizational pattern.

Let me compare this to what smart teams are doing. The Kansas City Chiefs just let Isiah Pacheco prove his worth on his rookie deal. They are not panicking about replacing Priest Holmes or Jamaal Charles. They understand that you can find competent running back production almost anywhere in this league. You can find it in the draft. You can find it on the waiver wire. You can find it in free agency for a reasonable price. What you cannot find easily is elite quarterback play. What you cannot find is a premiere pass rusher. What you cannot find is a shutdown corner. But running backs? Running backs are a dime a dozen. The Colts have somehow forgotten this.

Jonathan Taylor's contract now sits just below what the Falcons handed Bijan Robinson, and that was arguably a mistake too. Robinson has not played enough games yet to justify that kind of investment. His injury history is concerning. His running style takes a pounding. And yet the Falcons panicked and locked him in anyway. Now the Colts are following the same path with a player who is heading in the opposite direction of Robinson in terms of age and production trajectory. Taylor is 27 years old. He is not getting any faster. He is not going to suddenly become more efficient. The Colts are betting on decline and calling it investment strategy.

This deal will haunt Indianapolis. In two years, we will be having conversations about how the Colts cannot get under the cap. We will be talking about how they had to make difficult cuts in other areas because of this decision. We will be wondering why they did not see this coming. And it will all trace back to this moment, right now, when they decided that Jonathan Taylor was worth $22 million per year. He is not. Not even close. Not in a league where Rashuan Woods went in the third round and immediately proved he can be a productive back. Not in a league where you can find effective running back production if you actually look for it.

The Colts have Anthony Richardson at quarterback. They need to be all in on that investment. They need weapons around him. They need protection. They need coaching. What they do not need is $22 million a year dedicated to a running back who is averaging under four yards per carry. This is resource misallocation at the highest level. This is what happens when front offices get comfortable and stop thinking critically about value. They see a player they drafted, a player who has had some good moments, and they panic at the thought of letting him go. That panic costs them.

Here is what really happens with this extension. In two years, the Colts will either cut Taylor and eat cap space or they will keep him because they do not have any other options. Neither scenario is good. Both scenarios are bad. The first scenario makes them pay for this mistake twice. The second scenario handcuffs them going forward. There is no good outcome here. There is only varying degrees of bad outcomes, and the Colts have just locked themselves into one of them.

The market for running backs has gotten completely out of hand. Teams are throwing money at the position like 2007 is still happening. Christian McCaffrey gets paid like a superstar and then immediately gets injured and missed games. Derrick Henry gets massive deals and then ages out of his prime faster than expected. The pattern is clear. The teams that keep paying premium dollars for running backs are the teams that stay stuck in the middle of the standings. They cannot compete at the highest level because their resource allocation is fundamentally broken.

The Colts just made it official. They are a team that does not understand modern football economics. They are a franchise that is going to pay for this mistake for years. Jonathan Taylor will leave Indianapolis and someone else will pay the price for this decision. That is how it works. The Colts have just taken themselves out of contention for the next three years minimum. They have done this to themselves.

VERDICT: This is a bad deal. The Colts have overpaid for below-average running back production at a position that does not warrant this kind of investment. They will regret this extension within 18 months. This is the kind of move that keeps franchises from winning championships. Grade: D minus.