The Colts Face Their Reckoning: Building Around Taylor and Nelson, or Starting Fresh?

You know, when you've got two guys like Jonathan Taylor and Quenton Nelson on your roster, you've got yourself what we used to call in my day a real problem. And I mean that in the best way possible, because having franchise players is always better than the alternative. But here's the thing about franchise players, and this is something I've seen play out a hundred times over in this league: you've got to decide whether you're going to build around them or move on, and that decision is going to cost you either way. The Colts are staring down one of those moments right now, and it's the kind of decision that separates the organizations that win championships from the ones that are always trying to catch up.

Let me tell you something about Jonathan Taylor. This kid is a football player, plain and simple. He's not just a running back who's going to run the ball 20 times a game and disappear. He's the kind of guy who can take a screen pass and turn it into something, who can line him up in the slot and make a cornerback look silly, who can go up and get a ball in traffic like he's got springs in his legs. When he came into this league, I knew right away that here was a guy who was going to be special because he had that thing you can't teach, that instinct, that feel for the game. The man had 1,811 rushing yards his second year in the league. That's not luck. That's a guy who knows how to read a block, who understands leverage, who's got vision. You don't just find guys like that growing on trees.

And then you've got Quenton Nelson at left guard, and let me tell you, left guard is one of the most important positions on the football field if you understand football the way it's meant to be played. Nelson is the kind of blocker who makes the whole offensive line better just by showing up. He's not the flashiest guy, and that's what I love about him. He comes to work, he's got that nastiness to him, that finishing ability, and he understands angles and leverage the way a lot of these young players don't. When you've got a guy like Nelson protecting your quarterback and opening holes for your running back, you're starting from a foundation that a lot of teams are dreaming about.

So here's where it gets interesting, and this is where the business side of football collides with the football side of football. Both of these guys are going to want to get paid, and they're going to want to get paid like the elite talents they are. Taylor is going to look at what other elite running backs are making, and Nelson is going to look at what the best guards in this league are pulling in, and they're both going to have agents who are going to make damn sure they get every penny they've earned. That's how it should be. These guys worked for it, they've performed at a high level, and they deserve to be compensated like the professionals they are.

But here's the problem that keeps me up at night when I think about the Colts situation. The salary cap is real, and it's been getting tighter and tighter. You can't just pay everybody. You can't have four guys making fifteen million dollars a year and another three guys making twelve million and expect to have enough left over to fill out the rest of your roster. That's not how it works in this league, and the teams that understand that are the teams that win consistently. You've got to make choices, and those choices are going to hurt. That's just the reality of professional football in 2024.

Now, let me think about this from the Colts' perspective, and I want to be fair to what they're trying to do. They've got Anthony Richardson at quarterback, a guy who was the number one overall pick and who they're trying to develop. Richardson's not going to stay on a rookie deal forever, and when his time comes to get paid, the Colts are going to be looking at a situation where a significant chunk of their salary cap is going to be tied up in the quarterback position. That's just how it is in this league now. You can't compete without paying your quarterback, and if you want to compete at the highest level, you're going to be paying him like one of the best.

So when you look at Taylor and Nelson, you've got to ask yourself some hard questions. Can you afford to keep both of them long term? If you can't, which one do you let go? And if you do let one go, what does that do to your locker room, your chemistry, your competitive window? These are the kinds of questions that keep general managers and front offices up at night, and they should be asking themselves these questions right now while there's still time to make a move.

Let's talk about the running back position for a minute, because I think this is where a lot of people misunderstand the business of football. Running backs don't age like wine. They age like milk. You can have a guy who's putting up monster numbers, and two years later, he's lost a step, and you're wondering where the production went. The shelf life on a running back who's carrying the load like Taylor has been carrying it isn't infinite. You've got to understand that if you're going to pay big money to a running back, you're committing to paying him when he might not be at his best anymore. That's not to say Taylor won't age well, because some guys do, but the percentages aren't in your favor with that position group.

Meanwhile, with a guy like Nelson at left guard, you're potentially looking at a longer arc of productivity. Offensive linemen tend to hold their level of play longer than skill position guys. A great left guard who takes care of himself and doesn't pick up injuries can be productive well into his thirties. That's a different kind of investment than what you're making with a running back, even a great one like Taylor.

But here's what I keep coming back to, and this is the human side of the equation that sometimes doesn't get talked about enough. These guys have bled for your organization. They've shown up, they've performed, they've been professionals about how they've gone about their business. Asking them to take less money than they're worth just so you can manage your cap situation better isn't really asking for much if you think about it from a business perspective, but it is asking for something from a human perspective. Most players in this league are going to look out for themselves and their families, and they should be doing that. That's not selfish. That's reality.

What the Colts need to do is have honest conversations with both Taylor and Nelson about what their future looks like. Are they committed to being in Indianapolis long term? Is the organization committed to building a championship roster around these guys? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then you need to find a way to make the money work. You need to get creative with your contracts, you need to look at your entire roster and see what moves you can make elsewhere, and you need to commit to the process of building something special.

If the answers aren't yes across the board, then you've got a different kind of problem, and you're probably going to need to make some tough choices about which direction you're going to go. Maybe you let one of these guys walk, maybe you trade one of them, maybe you restructure deals up and down your roster to create space. There are options, but none of them are painless.

Here's what this means for Colts fans. You're sitting on the edge of a potential contending window, but you need all the pieces in place to take advantage of it. You've got the potential for a powerful running game with Taylor in the backfield and Nelson leading the way up front. That's a foundation that a lot of teams would kill for. But if the organization decides they can't afford both of these guys, then you're looking at a rebuild that's going to cost you a few years of productivity. And in this league, a few years is a long time. The window closes faster than you think, and once it closes, it takes a while to open it back up.