Two Draft Busts Are Already Showing Their True Colors Before They Even Put On an NFL Uniform

This is what happens when you don't understand leverage in contract negotiations. This is what happens when a player and his representation believe they are bigger than the actual process. This is what happens when young, talented guys get convinced by the wrong people that the NFL owes them more than what the draft slot dictates. We are watching it play out in real time with Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, and frankly, it should concern every franchise watching this circus unfold.

Let me be direct about something that everyone else is dancing around. The fact that only two first-round picks remain unsigned heading into the 2026 season is not a negotiating victory for Mendoza and Simpson. It is not a sign of leverage or brilliance from their agents. It is a massive red flag that these two players do not understand how professional football works, and they are already damaging their own brands before they have thrown a single NFL pass. This is not some complicated financial arrangement we are discussing here. The NFL has standardized rookie contracts. There is a slot value system. There is virtually no room for negotiation above that value unless you are a generational talent. And let me tell you something directly: neither of these quarterbacks is a generational talent.

Mendoza was selected in the first round because scouts believed he could become an NFL quarterback. Simpson was selected in the first round because a team thought his ceiling warranted the risk. Neither of them was taken in the top five. Neither of them has led a team through an NFL regular season. Neither of them has thrown an NFL interception. Neither of them has felt what it is like to get hit by an NFL pass rusher traveling at full speed. Yet here they are, holding out for more money than the slot allocation provides. This is not just wrong decision making. This is franchise-damaging behavior before a franchise has even drafted you.

I have covered this sport long enough to understand what drives these holdouts. It is almost always representation that does not understand the modern NFL landscape. It is agents who convinced young players that they can reset the market. It is advisors who told these quarterbacks that they are different, that they are special enough to fight the system. The system has won every single time because the system is based on economic reality. The NFL is a hard cap league. Teams cannot pay first-round rookies outside the predetermined slot values without creating massive financial implications across their entire roster. This is not negotiable. This is not a weakness on the part of the teams. This is mathematical reality.

What concerns me most is what this holdout tells us about these players as professionals and competitors. Does Mendoza not want to be ready for training camp? Does he not understand that every single day missed is a day he is not building chemistry with his offensive coordinator and receivers? Does he not grasp that his rookie contract negotiation is not the time to establish himself as difficult? The great ones, the ones who go on to have meaningful careers in this league, they sign the deal. They get in the facility. They start learning. They prove themselves on the field. Aaron Rodgers signed his rookie deal. Patrick Mahomes signed his rookie deal. Josh Allen signed his rookie deal. None of them thought they were above the process because all of them understood that your first NFL contract is not where you make your money. Your second contract is where you make your money. Your third contract is where you change your family for generations.

These holdouts are telling me that Mendoza and Simpson lack the maturity to understand basic financial sequencing in the NFL. They are telling me that they have been listening to the wrong voices. They are telling me that they believe they are bigger than the sport, and that is a belief that will follow them into their professional careers. Teams do not forget when you fight them over money you do not have leverage for. Coaches do not forget when you prioritize negotiations over showing up to work. Teammates do not forget when you hold out for additional dollars while they are grinding in offseason programs without you. This is just the beginning, and already these two quarterbacks have created a narrative that will follow them.

Let me also say this about the teams that drafted these guys: they need to hold the line. I do not care if it takes until Week One. I do not care if it creates an awkward situation in the locker room. The moment you negotiate above slot value is the moment you tell every other first-round pick in the league that the system is negotiable. You compromise your entire rookie pay structure. You tell future draft classes that holdouts work. You validate the approach that Mendoza and Simpson are taking, and that creates a domino effect across the entire league. A team with this kind of resolve can actually build culture. A team that folds on a first-round rookie contract fight has already told you that it will not stand firm when it matters.

This is about establishing who runs the organization. Does the front office understand the sport and its economic structure, or does it fold when there is a little bit of pressure? Does the coaching staff have the authority to enforce discipline in the building, or does it have to work around players who think they are untouchable? These questions are answered early, and they are answered loud. Winning franchises establish their pecking order immediately. They show that there is a process, that there are standards, and that young players do not get to rewrite the rules.

The other 30 first-round picks understood this. The other 30 players signed their deals and got to work. They understood that their contract negotiation window is not during their rookie season. They understood that leverage comes from performance, not from holding out before you have performed anything. This is just basic logic. This is just understanding the hierarchy of professional football.

Mendoza and Simpson are already behind. They are already marked as players who did not get it. They are already the subject of conversations in meeting rooms about character and professionalism. This holdout will not add a single dollar to their careers. It will not make them better quarterbacks. It will not make them more attractive to future teams in free agency. It will only serve as a reminder that they allowed their representation to convince them that the system was wrong, and they fought a battle they could never win.

The NFL is getting this one completely right by holding firm with slot values. The teams are getting this one completely right by not negotiating. The other first-round picks are getting this one completely right by signing and showing up. Mendoza and Simpson are getting this one completely wrong, and they are teaching themselves hard lessons about how professional football actually works before they have even put on their uniforms.

This is a verdict on professionalism, and it is a failing grade for both of them.