The Running Back Roulette Wheel is Spinning Out of Control, and NFL Teams Still Don't Get It

We are exactly one week away from the start of the NFL season, and the running back position is in complete chaos. Not the good kind of chaos where young talent is emerging and teams have legitimate depth. No, this is the bad kind. This is the kind where front offices are scrambling, coaches are improvising, and players are fighting through uncertainty about whether they will even suit up for their team's most important game of the year. And you know what? Most of these teams deserve exactly what they are getting.

Let's start with what we know for certain. Ashton Jeanty dodged a serious bullet. The Boise State product was supposed to be a potential early-round prospect, and when he went down during preseason action, there was real concern that we were looking at a season-ending injury. He avoided that catastrophe. Good for him. Good for whichever NFL team eventually gets him on their roster. But here is the thing that everyone is missing. The fact that a rookie running back is even this important to your team's Week 1 plans tells you everything you need to know about how unprepared your front office is.

This is the reality of modern NFL management. Teams enter training camp without contingency plans. They roll into August without secondary options that they actually trust. They watch their depth chart get decimated by injuries, and they act shocked. Shocked, I tell you. How is this still happening in 2024? We have more data than ever before. We have more medical technology than ever before. We have sports science departments that cost millions of dollars. Yet we still have teams scrambling around like kids picking teams for kickball at recess.

The running back position has become the ultimate victims of poor front office planning. These teams know that their starting running back is going to get banged up during the preseason. It happens every single year. And yet they continue to operate as if it is some kind of surprise. They continue to draft players late because they think they can get by with late-round acquisitions and undrafted free agents. Then August rolls around, someone tweaks an ankle or a knee, and suddenly the team is in a full-blown crisis mode.

What makes this even more maddening is that the solution is obvious. Teams need to actually invest in the running back position during the offseason. I am not talking about spending franchise money on a 28-year-old veteran who has already hit his peak. I am talking about building real depth. I am talking about having three solid options on your roster instead of praying that your draft pick stays healthy through preseason. The Pittsburgh Steelers understand this concept. The Kansas City Chiefs get this. But too many franchises still do not.

Consider the larger picture here. The NFL is a game of margins. Super Bowl winners are not built by hoping their backup is good enough. They are built by having legitimate depth at every position. They are built by front offices that understand that injuries are not a possibility, they are an inevitability. Yet we watch team after team enter the season with pencil marks at running back. They have their starter, they have maybe one other option they sort of believe in, and then everyone else is a question mark.

The teams that are panicking right now about their running back situation are the same teams that will be in panic mode again in Week 8 when another injury hits. They will be the same teams calling around on waivers looking for free agents. They will be the same teams that look back in December and wonder why they are not in playoff contention. Spoiler alert. It is because they did not build depth at crucial positions during the offseason. It is because they cut corners when they should have invested.

Now, there are some teams that handled this correctly. There are some front offices that saw the uncertainty at running back across the league and decided to build a three-headed monster anyway. Those teams are going to have a significant advantage in Week 1 and beyond. They will be able to rotate fresh legs. They will be able to substitute in case of emergency without missing a beat. And when injuries inevitably happen, they will be the ones sitting pretty while everyone else is texting former draft picks asking if they still know how to run an NFL route tree.

Ashton Jeanty avoiding a serious injury is great news for Jeanty and for whatever team ends up with him. But it is also a reminder that this entire position group is fragile. It is a reminder that teams cannot build their season on the health of one player at this spot. It is a reminder that depth matters. It is a reminder that front offices need to plan for disaster, not hope it does not happen.

The running back position has evolved significantly over the past decade. It is no longer the bell-cow role it used to be. Teams are using committees. Teams are utilizing pass-catching specialists. Teams are getting creative with how they distribute carries and responsibility. This is fine. This is smart football. But what it also means is that you need bodies. You need options. You cannot win the running back lottery every single year and have your backup perfectly ready to roll.

I have watched teams all offseason try to convince themselves that they have solved the running back problem with their late-round pick or their undrafted free agent gem. I have watched them talk themselves into believing that depth will emerge from nowhere. And I have watched them get devastated by injuries in August and September because they did not actually plan for that possibility. It happens over and over again, and yet nothing changes.

The NFL learns nothing. The NFL forgets nothing. Except when it comes to planning for running back depth, apparently. That is the one thing every franchise in this league forgets year after year after year.

The question now is whether teams will actually learn from whatever chaos unfolds this coming season at the running back position. Will they go into next offseason with a different philosophy? Will they actually invest in depth? Or will they continue to operate under the assumption that everything will work out perfectly and their Week 1 running back will somehow stay healthy through twelve months of training and preparation?

If history is any guide, we already know the answer. And that is the real problem with the running back situation this year. It is not about individual injuries. It is about systemic incompetence across an entire league that refuses to learn the same lessons year after year.

VERDICT: The running back situation heading into Week 1 is a complete indictment of modern NFL front office planning. Ashton Jeanty staying healthy is good news for his future, but it should not matter this much to whatever team is counting on him. Teams that panicked at this position during the offseason will panic again when injuries hit during the season. This is not bad luck. This is predictable chaos that could have been prevented. Grade: F for most NFL teams on their offseason running back strategy. This is a failure of planning that will cost multiple teams playoff seeding before the season is over.