The Preseason Mirage: Why Week 1 Struggles Don't Determine QB Futures, But These Three Need To Learn Fast

Let me be direct with you. The preseason means almost nothing. It is a dress rehearsal for a play that hasn't even opened on Broadway yet. The problem is that some people have convinced themselves that a bad preseason game tells us who a quarterback is going to be in the NFL, and that is completely backwards thinking. But here is where I separate myself from the crowd who thinks preseason is worthless. There is a difference between preseason being meaningless for evaluation purposes and preseason performance revealing something about a quarterback's preparation, intelligence, and ability to handle pressure. The latter matters. A lot.

When we look at the three quarterbacks who disappointed in Week 1 of the preseason, what we are really looking at is a snapshot of where they are in their development and how much room they have to grow before the regular season matters. Shedeur Sanders, Tua Tagovailoa, and Quinn Ewers all had games that made people nervous. That is exactly what the preseason is designed to do. It is supposed to expose weaknesses so you can fix them when the stakes are not a loss in the win column. Anyone telling you that one bad preseason game defines a quarterback's future is selling you false certainty, and I do not deal in false certainty.

But let's not pretend that completely ignoring what happened is the right move either. That would be equally stupid. When a young quarterback struggles in the preseason, we need to ask the right questions. Did he make bad decisions or did his teammates fail him? Did he look afraid or did he simply face better competition than what he had been seeing? Did he show progress from the day before or did he look worse? These are the questions that matter. The final score matters far less than the process.

Shedeur Sanders is the obvious place to start because his situation is unique. He is coming into the NFL as the son of Deion Sanders, which means every single game he plays will be examined through multiple lenses. Some people will dismiss his performance because of his father's legendary status. Other people will be harder on him because of that same legendary status. The truth is that Sanders needs to prove he belongs in the NFL, and preseason Week 1 is the worst possible time to make that determination. The guy has been in NFL camps for exactly one month at that point. He has not had time to learn his playbook, get comfortable with his receivers, or develop the trust that is absolutely necessary between a quarterback and the players around him.

What matters with Sanders is whether he shows improvement from game to game. If he plays Week 2 of the preseason and looks sharper, more comfortable, and more accurate, then the Week 1 game becomes a learning moment. If he plays Week 2 and looks worse, or the same, then you have a problem worth worrying about. That is the only lens through which preseason performance for young quarterbacks should be evaluated. The trajectory matters. The single snapshot does not.

Tua Tagovailoa is a completely different situation, and this is where people need to use their brains instead of their emotions. Tua has had multiple opportunities to prove he can play in this league. He is not a young prospect anymore. He is a quarterback who has been given chances and has mostly disappointed. When Tua struggles in the preseason, it does not surprise me at all. It actually confirms what I have believed for a long time, which is that Tua is a good backup quarterback who sometimes gets the opportunity to start. He is not a franchise quarterback. He does not have the arm talent. He does not have the decision-making ability of a true starter. He does not have the command presence that separates good NFL quarterbacks from great ones.

The problem with Tua is not that he had a bad preseason game. The problem is that he had bad regular seasons when he got his chances. He missed time with injuries, and when he came back, he looked pedestrian. He played in one of the most talented offenses in the NFL with Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins weapons, and he still looked like a guy who was managing games rather than winning them. When a quarterback like that struggles in the preseason, it is not noise. It is signal. It is confirmation of what we already know.

Now, can Tua turn it around? Sure. Anything is possible. But he has already had multiple chances to turn it around, and he has not done it. The preseason is not going to be the moment where he suddenly becomes a franchise quarterback. The preseason is the moment where he either shows me that he has made a leap in his development or he shows me what I already knew, which is that he is a solid backup who sometimes starts. If he plays well in the preseason and carries that into the regular season, then we have a conversation about whether Tua can be a winner. Until then, I am not holding my breath.

Quinn Ewers is the tricky one because he actually has the tools to be really good at this level. He was a heralded recruit. He had success at Texas. He has the arm talent. He has the size. He has the athleticism. But here is what I have learned about the quarterback position at the highest level. Tools are not the same as talent. Talent is tools plus decision-making plus poise plus understanding the game. A lot of guys have great tools and never figure out how to use them at the NFL level.

When Ewers struggles in the preseason, you need to watch him very carefully. Are his incompletions because receivers are not running routes right? Are they because he is not processing the field fast enough? Are they because he is not confident in what he is seeing? Are they because he is missing throws that he normally makes? These are the things that tell you whether a bad preseason game is just a bad game or whether it is revealing a ceiling to his potential.

The NFL is littered with quarterbacks who had all the tools in the world and never figured it out. You know what separates those guys from the quarterbacks who do figure it out? It is almost always processing speed and decision-making, which are things that absolutely can be improved with work and coaching. Ewers has time to develop. He is young. He was not expected to be an instant impact player. But he needs to show that he can learn, improve, and grow from one week to the next.

Here is what I believe about preseason Week 1 struggles for quarterbacks. They matter less than people think for evaluation purposes, but they matter more than people think for identifying what needs to be fixed. A bad preseason game is not a career death sentence. It is not a prophecy. It is a moment where a coach gets to see what works and what does not, and then the quarterback gets to correct course. Some quarterbacks will correct course and improve. Others will not.

For Sanders, the preseason is a chance to get his feet under him and prove he belongs. For Tua, the preseason is another chance to show he can be more than what he has shown in the regular season, which means it probably will not happen. For Ewers, the preseason is a laboratory where he can experiment and grow without games counting against his record.

The question is not whether these three can turn it around after one bad preseason game. Of course they can. The question is whether they will use the preseason the right way to improve, or whether they will settle into their comfort level and hope the regular season is different. That is always the difference between good NFL quarterbacks and great ones. It is not talent. It is work.

VERDICT: Preseason Week 1 tells you nothing definitive about any quarterback. It tells you what problems exist that need fixing. Sanders needs to get comfortable fast. Tua needs to prove he is more than a backup. Ewers needs to show he can process and improve. One game does not determine any of their futures. How they respond to that game absolutely does.