The OTA Illusions: Why What You're Seeing in May Has Nothing to Do With September Football

Here's what I know about OTA observations. They are mostly worthless. Teams are in shorts, running routes against air, and the best pass rush move you can make is not actually rushing at all. The quarterback throwing 15-yard slant routes against cornerbacks who are playing coverage at two-thirds speed is not throwing to an open receiver in the fourth quarter with the division on the line. This is important context that gets completely lost every spring when analysts start getting excited about "breakout candidates" and "position battles taking shape." Let me be clear about something right now. Very few of these impressions will matter when the pads come on in training camp.

The quarterback competitions that look decisive in May often look completely different in August. I have seen this story play out dozens of times. A backup looks crisp throwing balls to receivers who are jogging their routes. That same backup then faces three-hundred-pound defensive ends trying to rip his head off, and suddenly his decision-making changes. His footwork gets sloppy. His accuracy disappears when there is actual pressure instead of the theoretical kind. This is not new information. This is football history repeating itself every single year, and yet we treat May film like it is gospel. It is not gospel. It is barely even scripture.

What we are actually watching at OTAs is execution of the playbook against a defense that is not allowed to hit anybody. This is essentially a choreographed dance. The receivers know where they are going. The quarterbacks know where to find them. The cornerbacks know they cannot put hands on anyone. This is not football. This is practice for football. There is a massive difference, and the people who refuse to acknowledge this difference are doing their readers and listeners a disservice.

That said, there are some actual insights you can pull from OTA work. You can see who understands the system. You can see who runs crisp routes. You can see who is in shape and who is not. You can see how coaches are dividing reps and what that might tell you about their thinking heading into camp. You can see which young players have done their homework during the offseason. These things matter. These things give you real information. But they give you partial information, and that is critical to remember when you are trying to predict what will happen in September.

Let me talk about rookie quarterbacks specifically, because this is where the OTA coverage gets the most absurd. A rookie quarterback throwing the football well in OTAs is not news. Most rookie quarterbacks will throw the football reasonably well in OTAs. The ball is coming out clean. The windows are clean. The receivers are running the exact routes the quarterback expects them to run. This is a controlled environment designed to build confidence and teach the system. Rookie quarterbacks should look decent here. If they look terrible, that tells you something. But if they look good, that tells you almost nothing about whether they will be good actual NFL quarterbacks.

The real test for a rookie quarterback happens in training camp when the defense is finally allowed to hit. It happens in preseason when he is facing defensive schemes he has never seen before, when the coverage is disguised, when the pass rush is not a suggestion but an actual threat. It happens in the regular season when he has one second to make decisions instead of three. OTAs are the earliest possible lens, and people are treating them like they are definitive. This is a mistake in logic that I cannot emphasize enough.

I am also deeply skeptical of the "battle" narratives that emerge from OTA observations. Teams have decisions to make about who starts, obviously. But coaches are not really deciding these things in May. They are gathering information. They are putting players in positions to succeed. They are not game-planning against them. The veteran quarterback who looks "rusty" in OTAs might be getting the first-team reps because the organization has already decided he is the starter, and they are just giving the young guy reps to develop him. The young cornerback who looks sharp might be getting favorable matchups because coaches want to build his confidence, not because he has won the job outright.

The most dangerous thing you can do as a football observer is assume that early-season playing time distribution equals a final decision. It does not. Organizations use OTAs to develop players, not necessarily to crown winners. This is especially true with draft picks who are being brought along. A first-round pick might be getting limited reps at OTAs not because he is struggling, but because the team is managing his workload and development schedule. Understanding this distinction is crucial to understanding what you are actually watching.

I think about the narrative around so many quarterback competitions that seemed settled by May and looked completely different by October. I think about backup quarterbacks who looked like world-beaters in shorts and helmets, only to struggle the moment they had to operate against actual NFL defenses. I think about young players who dazzled at OTAs and never did anything else notable in the league. The list is long. Very long.

Here is what I would tell you to actually pay attention to in OTA coverage. Pay attention to body language and demeanor. Pay attention to whether a player looks like he belongs on the field and whether he is running with confidence. Pay attention to how coaches are talking about players, not in press conferences but in their actual interactions. Pay attention to who is making other players better. Pay attention to fundamental execution of the system. These things tell you something real. What they do not tell you is who will be good in September.

The other thing worth considering is coaching philosophy in terms of how OTA reps are distributed. Some coaches believe in getting their starters a ton of reps early in the spring. Others believe in limiting their workload and spreading the reps around. These philosophies are different, but neither one means anything definitive about who the starter actually is. A quarterback who gets ten reps at OTAs is not necessarily on the way out. A quarterback who gets 30 reps is not necessarily the favorite. It depends on coaching philosophy, health management, and organizational planning. You need to know the team to interpret the reps correctly.

I want to be clear about something because I think it is important. I am not saying that OTA observations are completely worthless. I am saying they are being overweighted in most analysis. They are being treated as more meaningful than they actually are. When someone tells you that a quarterback is "winning" a battle in May, what they are really telling you is that the quarterback is executing his assignments against limited competition in a controlled environment. That is not nothing. But it is also not everything. It is barely anything, actually, when you are trying to predict how the season will go.

The same applies to any position. A rookie running back who looks explosive at OTAs might get exposed when he has to face actual linebackers moving at full speed. An edge rusher who flashes in drills might not know how to play in space when the offensive line is trying to reach him. A cornerback who looks sticky in coverage might get turned around when he has to react to double moves. This is not complicated. This is just how football works.

Here is my verdict on the entire OTA observation industry. Most of it is speculative theater designed to fill airtime and generate content during a slow time of year. Some of it is actually insightful. Your job is to figure out which is which. Pay attention to the real information. Ignore the breathless narratives about battles that are not actually being decided. Understand that May is practice and September is business. Trust that understanding more than you trust any single observation about how a quarterback looks in shorts. That is the only way you stay grounded in reality while everyone around you is getting caught up in the OTA illusions that repeat every single year.