The Justin Herbert Overrated Festival Has Gone Too Far. It's Time to Stop Pretending He's Elite.

Listen, I have been in this business long enough to know when the NFL media gets something wrong, and we are getting the Justin Herbert evaluation completely wrong. The conversation around Herbert has become so detached from reality that it feels like we are talking about two different quarterbacks. One version exists in highlight reels and ESPN promos. The other version shows up on Sunday and throws touchdowns to wide-open receivers while his team somehow finds new ways to lose. That second version is the one that actually matters.

Let me be crystal clear about what I am saying here. Justin Herbert is not a top-ten quarterback in the National Football League right now. He is not top-twelve. He might not even be top-fifteen. This is not hyperbole. This is not clickbait. This is me looking at what happens when he actually takes the field and comparing it to what happens when the actual elite quarterbacks take the field. The gap is enormous. The gap is so enormous that it should embarrass everyone who has spent the last three years pretending Herbert is the next big thing.

Here is what happened. Herbert got drafted tenth overall in 2020 and threw touchdowns in a rookie season. The Chargers had an interesting young team. The media got excited. Fantasy football websites got excited. Twitter got excited. Before anyone really knew what they were looking at, Herbert had a narrative attached to him. He was the heir apparent. He was the guy who could compete with Mahomes. He was going to carry the Chargers to Super Bowls. We all started operating under those assumptions, and we have not stopped since.

But assumptions are not football. Football is what happens in the real world. In the real world, Herbert's teams have been mediocre to bad. In the real world, Herbert has had plenty of opportunities to lead his team to championships and has consistently come up short. In the real world, he throws interceptions in critical moments. He makes poor decisions under pressure. He gets sacked way too much because he holds the ball and waits for plays to develop downfield. These are not things I am making up. These are things that happen every single Sunday when the Chargers play.

The skill set is absolutely there. I am not going to sit here and tell you Herbert cannot throw the football. He has an outstanding arm. He can make every throw on the field. He has a nice release. He is big enough to see over his offensive line. But you know what else? Half the guys in the NFL have those exact same qualities. What separates the elite guys from the good guys is what they do with that skill set. What separates them is decision-making under pressure. What separates them is the ability to elevate their teammates. What separates them is winning football games when things get difficult.

Herbert does not do those things consistently. I have watched him enough to know that. When the Chargers are playing a real defense, he gets flustered. When the game is on the line, he has a tendency to try to do too much. When he needs to throw the football away instead of holding it for seven seconds, he holds it for seven seconds. When he needs to take what the defense gives him, he is trying to fit balls into windows that do not exist. These are not coaching problems. These are not talent problems. These are quarterback problems. And they are fundamental quarterback problems that do not disappear just because somebody threw a nice pass in the second quarter.

Let me give you a quick reality check on the contemporary quarterback landscape. Patrick Mahomes is elite. Josh Allen is elite. Lamar Jackson is elite. Joe Burrow is playing elite football. Jalen Hurts has proven he can play elite football. Kirk Cousins has been putting up elite-level numbers. Tom Brady was elite until he retired. Aaron Rodgers is still elite even if he is aging. Travis Kelce plays tight end, not quarterback, but I put him on this list because he is more valuable than Herbert most Sundays. Kyler Murray can play elite football when he is healthy. Daniel Jones has been playing well. Anthony Richardson has more raw upside than Herbert ever had.

That is already ten quarterbacks. That is ten quarterbacks who either are performing at an elite level or have proven they can perform at an elite level. Some of those guys do it every single week. Some of them do it most weeks. Some of them have done it in the past. But none of them have the inconsistency problem that Herbert has. None of them have the decision-making problem that Herbert has. None of them throw away as many games as Herbert throws away.

The Chargers situation is instructive here because it tells you everything you need to know about the difference between a good quarterback and an elite quarterback. The Chargers gave Herbert weapons. They gave him Keenan Allen. They gave him Mike Williams. They drafted receiver after receiver. They built the roster around him. They gave him a coaching change when they thought that was the problem. And yet, the results have been mediocre. The team has not made a playoff run. The team has not won anything. The team keeps finding new ways to finish in the middle of the pack while having more talent than most teams in the league.

That is the mark of a quarterback who is not elite. An elite quarterback elevates his team. An elite quarterback makes his teammates better. An elite quarterback wins games that he should not win. Herbert does not do that. Herbert gets the full benefit of his roster and still manages to waste it. That is not elite. That is very good at best. That is good when he is having a decent week. But that is not elite.

Here is another way to think about it. If you are building a championship team and you can have anyone in the NFL, you are not picking Herbert. You are picking literally ten other guys before you even think about Herbert as an option. You are picking guys who have won at the highest level or who have proven they can elevate a team regardless of circumstances. Herbert has proven none of those things. He has proven he can throw touchdowns when the defense is sleeping and then throw interceptions when the defense is awake. That is not an elite guy. That is a guy who was drafted too high in a draft class that did not have a lot of great quarterback options.

The defensive efficiency against Herbert is also telling. Good defenses shut him down. Great defenses embarrass him. When he faces playoff-caliber defensive lines, he gets visibly uncomfortable. When he faces safeties who understand how to disguise coverage, he makes mistakes. When he faces corners who can actually cover his receivers, he forces balls. These are not flaws that go away with experience. These are fundamental flaws in how he processes the game.

I also think the injury thing is relevant here. Herbert has had shoulder issues. He has missed time. Elite quarterbacks generally do not have the same injury profile as good quarterbacks. That might sound like I am being unfair, but it is not unfair to point out that durability is part of being elite. If you are missing multiple weeks every season, you are not elite. You might be talented, but you are not elite.

The Chargers made another coaching change recently, and everyone is acting like that is going to fix everything. But this is the problem with the Herbert narrative. We always have an excuse for Herbert. It was the offensive line. It was the coaching. It was the receivers not getting open. It was anything except the most obvious answer, which is that Herbert is a good quarterback who makes mistakes and is not going to elevate his team to championship status.

Here is my verdict, and I want to be as clear as possible about this. Justin Herbert is a good quarterback. He is a second-tier quarterback. He is in that group of guys who can throw the ball around and create some highlights and fool you into thinking his team is better than it is. But he is not elite. He has not earned that designation. He has not played consistently enough. He has not made enough winning plays in crucial moments. He has not elevated his team enough. He has not proven he can win when things matter.

Stop pretending otherwise. Stop creating narratives that do not match reality. Judge Herbert by what he actually does on the field, not by what we hoped he would be when he was drafted. When you do that, the answer is simple. He is not a top-ten quarterback in this league. He is not elite. And it is time we all stopped acting like he is.