The AFC's Offseason Winners Are Faking It, And Three Surprises Will Actually Win Their Division

The offseason is the great con. Every team looks good in May because nobody has played football yet. The moves that seem brilliant in a draft room or free agency meeting look very different when the bullets start flying in September. I'm going to tell you something that goes against everything you're reading right now: most of the AFC teams that got good grades for their offseason moves are building the wrong kind of rosters. They're adding depth. They're checking boxes. They're doing the things that look impressive on paper. What they're not doing is solving fundamental problems. This is going to be a brutal AFC season for several franchises that think they've turned a corner, and the teams that did the right things will separate themselves quickly.

Let's start with the simple truth that everyone needs to hear. Winning the offseason doesn't mean winning in the regular season. It sounds basic, but every spring, the football world gets caught up in the excitement of free agency and the draft. Teams sign players to big contracts. Teams move up in the draft. Teams make splashy trades. The national media anoints winners and losers based on how aggressive they were, not based on whether the moves actually address the problems that beat them last season. The Kansas City Chiefs didn't win three Super Bowls in the last five years because they had the best offseason every single year. They won because they made moves that fit their system and they didn't panic when things weren't perfect. The teams that are going to win the AFC this year are the teams that understood what was broken and actually fixed it. Everything else is noise.

The Buffalo Bills are a perfect example of a team that had a solid offseason on the surface but might have missed the point entirely. They upgraded their wide receiver room by adding Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs in trade. That sounds great. The problem is that Josh Allen has had plenty of weapons. The problem is that their defense got worse last season and they did nothing fundamental to address it. They brought back similar pieces. They made marginal upgrades. But they didn't change the trajectory of their defense, which was leaking yardage and points. The Bills didn't lose playoff games because they didn't have enough receivers. They lost because they couldn't stop good offenses. This offseason, they needed to go all in on defensive line help and secondary upgrades. Instead, they made receiver moves that felt good but don't solve anything. The Bills are going to be a Wild Card team that gets knocked out early because their defense is still not built to win a championship.

The Pittsburgh Steelers made moves that people loved. They drafted a cornerback early. They brought in defensive depth. Their offseason grades looked good across the board. But here's the problem: they still have the same fundamental issue they've had for years. Their quarterback situation is completely unsettled. They're going into a season with Ben Roethlisberger likely retiring soon, and they're not building toward the future. They're building to try to win now, which is a classic mistake. You can't win in the AFC North right now with a short-term approach. The Ravens are better. The Bengals are better because they have Joe Burrow. The Browns are better when they're healthy. The Steelers are trying to squeeze out one more year of relevance instead of committing to a direction. That's not a good offseason. That's treading water while pretending you're swimming.

Now let me tell you about the teams that actually did the right things, even if they didn't get the flashy grades. The Houston Texans made the kind of offseason that builds a championship foundation. They focused on getting younger. They added speed and athleticism on defense. They invested in their offensive line. They didn't do anything that looked incredible in a vacuum, but when you look at how they fit together, you see a team that's building something real. C.J. Stroud is going to be their quarterback, and they're building around him properly. This team is going to surprise people this year. They might not win the division, but they're going to be better than anyone expects, and more importantly, they're positioned to be good for years to come.

The Indianapolis Colts made a smart move getting Anthony Richardson at quarterback, but that's not an offseason grade. That's one pick. What matters is what they do around him in the next two seasons. This year, they're still a team in transition. They don't have the weapons. They don't have the protection. Anthony Richardson is going to have a rookie season that looks rough statistically. That's not a failure on the Colts' part. That's the reality of quarterback development. The Colts get credit for having a plan and a vision. They understand that the next two years are about foundation building, not winning right now. That's more mature than teams trying to force a contention window that isn't real.

The Baltimore Ravens have actually built the right kind of roster, and everyone knows it. Lamar Jackson is healthy. Their defense got better. They have the right philosophy about running the football and playing strong defense. But here's what nobody is saying: they're not the best team in the AFC. The Kansas City Chiefs are still the best team in the AFC because they have the best quarterback and the best head coach. You can build a good team around Lamar Jackson all you want, but you're still playing in the same conference with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. That's a reality that Baltimore has to accept. They can win their division. They can make a playoff run. But they're not winning the Super Bowl this year unless the Chiefs fall apart, which they won't.

The biggest problem with most AFC teams right now is that they're trying to compete before they're ready. They're adding pieces to make the playoffs, and they're ignoring the fundamental work that needs to be done to actually win a championship. The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to struggle because they gave Trevor Lawrence an extension before he proved he could be a legitimate franchise quarterback. The Tennessee Titans are going to struggle because they haven't solved their quarterback problem and they're still trying to build around running backs. The New England Patriots are going to struggle because they're pretending they can be competitive again without committing to a clear direction at quarterback and wide receiver.

Here's what's actually going to happen this season in the AFC. The Kansas City Chiefs are going to win the West because they're the best team with the best quarterback. The Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers will win the North, probably Baltimore, but neither team is actually good enough to get past Kansas City when it matters. The Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texans could win the South, but it's more likely Jacksonville because of division strength, even though they're not a good team. The Buffalo Bills will probably win the East, but they're not going to get out of the playoffs either. When you strip away all the offseason grades and all the flowery language, you realize that the AFC has maybe two or three teams that are actually positioned to win a Super Bowl. Everything else is competing for the privilege of losing in the playoffs.

The five contenders that everyone is talking about having a brutal path to the playoffs is not just about their schedule. It's about the fundamental flaws in how they built their rosters. The teams that have a brutal path aren't losing because of tough opponents. They're going to lose because they didn't actually address their problems. A good team can beat anybody. A team that's just added some pieces around old problems is going to struggle when the schedule gets hard.

The verdict is simple: don't trust the offseason grades. Trust the films. Trust the system. Trust whether a team's moves actually address the reasons they failed last year. Most AFC teams failed that test this offseason, and we're going to see it on the field starting in September.