Four Weeks In, the NFL's Real Contenders Are Starting to Show Their Stripes, and Boy Are There Some Surprises

You know what I love about October football? This is when the pretenders start to separate from the real deal. Training camp hype gets flushed right down the drain, the easy schedule opponents are behind you, and now you're playing teams that can actually slap you in the mouth. Week 4 is where you start to see the skeleton of what these teams really are, and let me tell you, some of these early season stories are more interesting than a playoff overtime game.

I've been watching football for more years than I want to count, and one thing I know for certain is that if your team can't win games in October, you've got a real problem on your hands. It doesn't matter what your talent level is on paper or what anybody said about you in the offseason. Four weeks in, you're supposed to have some rhythm, some identity, some idea of what you're doing. The teams that have figured that out already are the ones you need to watch. The teams that are still flailing around like a fish on the dock, well, those are the ones that are going to be looking at coaching changes come December.

Let me talk about the winners first, because that's where the fun is. You've got teams that came into the season with question marks, real legit concerns, and they've answered those questions with their play on the field. That's what separates the champions from everybody else. When things get uncertain, do you shrink or do you expand? Do you play small or do you play big? The winners in Week 4 are the teams that are expanding. They're taking what they've got and they're making it work.

The Kansas City Chiefs, and I know everybody expected this, but they're doing exactly what they've always done. They're winning games in ways that drive other teams absolutely crazy. Patrick Mahomes has this thing where he can be off the rhythm, off the platform, falling backward, and suddenly he's throwing a dime into a tight window that shouldn't even be there. That's not something you can coach. That's not something you can plan for in your defensive meetings. The Chiefs have Andy Reid, who is one of the greatest offensive minds to ever draw up a football play, and they've got Mahomes, who can make things happen that violate the laws of physics. That combination is going to be playing in January. Bank on it.

But here's where I want to focus, because I love a good surprise story. There are teams out there that came into the season with everyone wondering if they could get to the finish line, and they're proving they can go toe to toe with anybody. These teams have something brewing that's real. They've got identity. They've got toughness. They've got a quarterback situation that's working. And most importantly, they've got coaches who know how to get the best out of their people.

The thing about the losers is that they're not always the teams with the worst records. Sometimes a team can be sitting there at 2 and 2 and they've already lost what makes a football team work. They've lost their toughness. They've lost their belief. They've lost their communication. I've seen it a thousand times. A team loses and they get all in their feelings about it. Instead of getting tougher, they get softer. Instead of playing more aggressive, they play timid. That's the death knell right there.

What I'm seeing in Week 4 is some teams that are fragmenting already. The locker room is the most important thing in football, and I don't mean that in some touchy-feely way. I mean that fundamentally, if your team is not buying in completely to what the coaches are trying to do, then you're done. It doesn't matter if you've got talent. I've seen talented teams get a split in the locker room and they finish 5 and 12. I've seen teams with less talent believe in each other and make a run at the playoffs that shocked everybody.

When you look at the grades for every team at this point in the season, you've got to grade them on what they've actually done, not what you thought they were going to do. I don't care if you traded three first-round picks for a guy. If he's not producing on Sundays, then he's not helping you. If your offensive line is struggling after you invested all that money in it, then you've got a problem that money didn't solve. The grade cards don't lie. They reflect who you are right now, not who you wish you were.

The thing that's fascinating about this particular moment in the season is that we've got a division game coming up that's going to tell us a lot. I'm talking about the Falcons and the Saints, and this is one of those games that means more than the record would suggest. Division games are always different. You can throw out what the records say sometimes in a division game because there's something in that rivalry, something in that history, that makes teams play different.

The Falcons are in an interesting spot. They've been competitive in some games and absolutely dominated in others. That inconsistency is either growing pains or it's a sign that something bigger is wrong. The Saints, on the other hand, are a team that's got a lot of questions about where they're going and what they're trying to build. This game matters for both of them, and not just in the standings.

When you're picking these kinds of games, you've got to look at what's actually happening on the field, not what the storylines tell you. You've got to look at which team is executing better in the fundamentals. Which team is making the fewest mistakes? Which team's defense is actually stopping people instead of just hoping they'll go away? These are the things that separate winners from losers in the NFL.

The reality of Week 4 is that we're starting to see the true competitive landscape of this league. The teams that are going to matter are revealing themselves. Some of them are shocking us. Some of them are exactly what we thought they'd be. But all of them are telling us something about themselves through their play on the field.

For the fans, this is where it gets really interesting. If your team is one of the winners, you can feel that momentum building. You can see your team playing together, executing, believing in the system. That's the greatest feeling in sports. But if your team is one of the losers, if they're fragmenting right before your eyes, then you've got a long season ahead. You've got to decide whether you're going to stick with them or whether this is going to be a frustrating year. Either way, October tells you what you need to know.